The odds for an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on December 18th have seen a dramatic increase, jumping from approximately 40% to 70% in a major market reversal.
This sharp revision in market expectations is driven by mounting evidence of a slowing U.S. economy. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius cautioned that the U.S. economy may lose momentum faster than current projections anticipate. And today we got data from payroll processing firm ADP showing private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs per week over the last four weeks.
Continued weak economic data is expected to keep weighing on the U.S. dollar. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep a tighter stance relative to peers, and I don’t know if markets are entirely pricing in a differential, with the recent up trend of the AUDUSD appearing to taper off.
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