- The TACO trade in forex refers to capitalising on short-term USD volatility caused by Trump’s tariff threats and subsequent policy reversals.
The “TACO trade” – short for “Trump Always Chickens Out” – originated in equity markets but is equally relevant in forex. The pattern is simple: Trump signals aggressive tariffs, markets react and then reverse when the threat is walked back.
One example: In May 2025, the U.S. dollar weakened sharply after Trump announced a 50% tariff on EU imports. EUR/USD rallied to 1.1440 as traders priced in slower U.S. growth. But just days later, the Trump delayed the tariffs to July, and the dollar quickly regained ground.
For forex traders, the TACO trade strategy is about timing: entering on initial panic and exiting on the rollback.
That said, it’s not without risk. If tariffs are actually enforced, the dollar’s decline may be more prolonged. And with markets increasingly aware of this pattern, reactions may become less predictable.
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