Possible opportunity in Aussie vs USD this week?

  • The focus this week centers around key economic indicators for the US dollar.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep its interest rate steady at 4.35%, with a 97% probability.

Attention will be paid to key economic indicators that roll out over the course of the week such as the Non-farm Payrolls jobs report, JOLTs job openings, and the ISM Services PMI survey. 

Moody’s analysis suggests a cooling down of various labor market measures. The uptick in November jobs growth is attributed to the impact of the United Auto Workers strikes in October rather than a substantial resurgence in the labor market. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to maintain its interest rate in its upcoming meeting on Wednesday, with a 97% probability for the rate to stay at 4.35%. There is only a 3% chance of a 25bps hike to 4.60%. This expectation follows the RBA’s decision to raise the Cash Rate by 25bps in the last November meeting.  

A surprise decision by the RBA (or even a change in outlook) could see the Aussie dollar spike like the NZ dollar did last week. Look for weak preliminary job numbers coming from the US for extra confirmation of a bullish Aussie outlook. 

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