We’re getting mixed signals into the North American open. On one side, currencies are tracking lower against the US dollar, signaling a flight to safety. On the other, US equity futures are pointing slightly higher.
The market was rattled by yesterday’s drop in US consumer confidence, which saw its largest one-month decline since August 2021. This adds to concerns about the economic outlook, with US data coming in softer, inflation ticking back up, and President Trump continuing to push trade discussions.
Other major headlines include the new German government negotiating an amendment to the German Constitution to establish a large defense fund that would bypass the country’s debt brake. The market is also watching a significant minerals deal between the US and Ukraine and its potential impact on the conflict with Russia.
Regarding trade talks and upcoming tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Trump’s senior trade counselor, Peter Navarro, has confirmed that negotiations are ongoing ahead of the March 4 deadline.
Looking ahead, key data releases include Canada wholesale sales, US new home sales, building permits, Bank of England commentary, and Federal Reserve speeches. Nvidia earnings will also be in focus.
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