HSBC & JPM: No Bullish Outlook for EUR/USD?

Mark O'Donnell
- Research Analyst -
October 31, 2024
Forex, Trading Opportunities

HSBC anticipates an initial, short-lived rally in EUR/USD if Harris wins, driven by a temporary dip in USD strength.
Analysts from Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and ING warn that a Trump win could drive the euro toward parity with the dollar due to his potential tariffs on Europe.

HSBC foresees a brief rally in EUR/USD should Kamala Harris secure the U.S. presidency. However, the bank expects the rally to be a temporary knee-jerk reaction, with the pair resuming a downward trajectory.

A Donald Trump victory could have starker implications for EUR/USD, as Trump has pledged tariffs on Europe, reigniting fears of a renewed trade war. Analysts at Deutsche Bank AG, JPMorgan Private Bank, and ING Groep NV warn that Trump’s win could drive the euro down to parity with the dollar.

Either way, the euro is maybe expected to decline across the board. An IMF downgrade of eurozone growth, persistent below-target inflation, economic sluggishness, and political friction collectively point to a weaker euro against other major currencies.

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