Gold tumbles: Eyes on UK inflation next

  • Market sentiment suggests a 79% chance of a June rate cut, rising to 92% in July, prompted by high US inflation figures.
  • Gold has plummeted below $2,000, and the US dollar surged against the CAD and Euro due to the Federal Reserve’s reassessment amid unexpected inflation.

The new numbers are in: Current market sentiment suggests a 79% chance in June and an even stronger expectation of a 92% chance for a cut in July.  

The unexpectedly high US inflation figures have led to a reassessment of when the Federal Reserve might implement its initial rate cut.   

The US dollar surged on this news, with the USD/CAD hitting a multi-month high, and the EUR/USD hitting multi-month low. Gold dropped below the $2,000 mark, significantly trailing all its moving averages. The 7-day SMA accelerated its descent below the longer ones, reaching around $2,010.  

On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators indicate a possible stabilization in oversold territory, signaling a potential exhaustion in the downward movement. This perhaps suggests a likelihood of consolidation before the next significant directional shift.   

The release of UK inflation data tomorrow might serve as the next catalyst for market movements. Consumer prices are anticipated to decline by 0.3% on a month-over-month basis, with the annual inflation rate expected to increase for the second consecutive month, reaching 4.2%. 

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