We’re definitely seeing a massive uptick in risk appetite in recent sessions as investors celebrate a reprieve from tariff intensification. At the same time, the broader trade war narrative has not gone away. And though we are getting a boost in risk assets, we’re also seeing the US dollar suffer across the board.
Indeed, there is an expectation the Fed will need to be more accommodative with policy in the months ahead, which is forcing yield differentials out of the buck’s favour. At the same time, it’s hard to ignore what could be the start of a more pronounced structural shift on account of US administration policies that are driving investment away from the US.
The Senate’s budget resolution enabling $5.3 trillion in tax cuts and a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase with minimal spending cuts further weakens the dollar’s structural outlook. Looking ahead, we get US consumer inflation expectations and some Fed speak.
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